In this piece I’m trying to walk through my chronological observations after learning about OAR Operation Absolute Resolve. What is the economic motivation (duh!), some operational steps, what I think it means for geopolitik and some consequences / symptoms.
After the mission to capture Maduro came into public view during Trump’s first post-event presser I heard him say loud and clear: “the US will pay itself in oil”: making it clear the kinetic mission to remove Maduro was the first step towards securing Venezuela’s oil infrastructure and revenue streams by placing their management into American hands.
Venezuela’s reserves are pegged at roughly $17 trillion in value or 300B barrels, but current extraction is tiny at only 1 million barrels per day. The math works out to:
822 more years at the current extraction rate to secure all currently observed stock
This gap between massive latent reserves and low production explains OAR: if production and export can be scaled, the long-term value is enormous.
With boots on the ground for security, U.S. oil companies to essentially run the entire value chain when accounting for crude refiners back home in Louisiana and Texas. Additionally, portions of revenue will be allocated to Venezuelan citizens net of U.S. administrative expenses.
The action executes on the previously stated plan for US hemispherical hegemony. Not satisfied with monetary dominance, the US is projecting its power by flossing with drones. Swift, localized control to secure the largest store of oil known to man - and without the loss of American life.
Moore’s Law seems to have infected the US Government because it feels like we are seeing an administration’s worth of actions at lightning pace. The rapid execution is compressing diplomacy and now we are genuinely surprised by what the government actually does as well as what it says. And sadly the lack of deliberation time surely contributes to the mortal risk involving increasing domestic militarism.
Still there is a legitimate moral case for intervention. Maduro’s rule was fairly critiqued for humanitarian abuse, including by his former rival: Nobel winner Machado. Corruption and incompetence left citizens impoverished and created refugee flows to the tune of 27% of the population (based on 2014 numbers when the crisis began).
Why would we as a human race want oil, aka energy for humanity to be misused, used for corruption, and to defraud citizens of Venezuela?
My reasoning tells me that intervention could be framed as restoring resources to the populace and removing a tyrant who refused democratic outcomes.
I acknowledge brazenness provokes people - as it is designed to do. But a decade of non-intervention resulted in ongoing corruption, displacement, and failed governance. Decisive action fills a vacuum, however risky. Design thinking promotes “a bias for action” but most design thinkers are dishonest because they unconsciously qualify as long as it a moral action. Sometimes we can’t or don’t know enough about all moral sides so it can be moral simply to act.
Music: Yank Riddim by snowsa ft. Young M.A.
👆🏽 It’s got that Bobby Shmurda bounce, right?!
